Exchange Rate Depreciation and Real Wages

By Prabhat Patnaik

Republished from People’s Democracy.

MOST people, including even trained economists, fail to appreciate the fact that an exchange rate depreciation, if it is to work in reducing the trade deficit in a capitalist economy, must necessarily hurt the working class by lowering the real wage rate. A capitalist economy, looking at it differently, improves its trade balance, for which it must improve its competitiveness, by lowering the real wage rate; and an exchange rate depreciation is one way of doing so.

Most textbooks in economics do not mention this fact. They are written from the point of view not only of bourgeois economics in general, but of a bourgeois economics that invokes a model of a capitalist economy that is far removed from reality. They see this economy as consisting of a set of markets in each of which a price-rise is supposed to lower excess demand. The foreign exchange market is one such; and the text books simply say that as long as the demand and supply curves have the right shape in this market (so that excess demand is lowered through a price-rise), an exchange rate depreciation, which is the same as a rise in the price of foreign exchange, lowers the excess demand for foreign exchange, namely lowers the trade deficit. This is where their analysis of an exchange rate depreciation usually ends; and then they move on to discussing under what conditions the curves have the right shape.

This entire mode of analysis however is flawed. Most economies need imported inputs, usually oil and natural gas; the oil-producing economies on the other hand need a range of non-oil raw materials which they cannot grow themselves but cannot do without. The imported inputs,together with labour and domestically-produced current inputs, constitute the list of current inputs. And in all capitalist economies, the prices of commodities are determined as a mark-up over the costs of current inputs per unit of output. This is of course true under monopoly capitalism. This is how oligopolists operate; they fix prices in this manner and let the level of demand at this price determine what is produced. Some argue that capitalism even in the earlier period was characterised by such price-fixing, and that the classical political economists’ conception of free competition (which Marx took over) where the producers accepted a price impersonally determined by the market, was not a realistic picture. But this discussion is not germane to the present issue; the basic point here is that in any modern economy, prices are fixed by oligopolists as a mark-up over the unit prime cost.

Now, suppose a currency depreciates by 10 per cent; then the local currency prices of all imported inputs go up by 10 per cent, and therefore the part of unit cost arising from imported inputs in the production of any final good goes up by 10 per cent. If real wages were to remain unchanged, then money wages will have to keep going up proportionately as prices rise; and in such a case prices will ultimately rise by 10 per cent in local currency, with money wages also rising by 10 per cent and hence unit labour cost too also rising by 10 per cent. (The unit prime cost arising from domestically-produced inputs rises in the same ratio as the final produced goods price and therefore will also rise, automatically, by 10 per cent). But if local currency prices rise by 10 per cent following an exchange rate depreciation of 10 per cent, then this means there has been no real effective depreciation whatsoever; and hence not an iota of difference will be made to the trade deficit.

If domestic prices rise by 10 per cent following an exchange rate depreciation of 10 per cent, then the prices of export goods in terms of foreign currency would remain unchanged; and hence there is no question of any increase in the quantity of exports owing to their becoming cheaper. Likewise, if domestic prices rise by 10 per cent following an exchange rate depreciation of 10 per cent, then the local currency price of imported goods would rise by 10 per cent, the same as domestically produced goods, in which case there is no question of any reduction in the quantity of imports. It follows therefore that with no increase in the quantity of exports and no decrease in the quantity of imports, the trade deficit measured in foreign currency remains unchanged.

An absolutely essential condition for an exchange rate depreciation to work therefore (and this is only a necessary condition with no guarantee that its fulfilment will actually improve the trade balance) is that domestic prices must not rise at the same rate as the price of foreign exchange owing to an exchange rate depreciation. And this can happen only if money wages do not rise by the same proportion as the final goods prices; that is, if there is a fall in the real wage rate.

This can be seen as follows. If, say, a 10 per cent exchange rate depreciation is to make any difference to the trade balance, then the domestic prices must rise by less than 10 per cent, say, by 7 per cent, for only then would there be some real effective depreciation. For this to happen, the unit prime cost must rise by 7 per cent, as the mark-up by the capitalists is a given ratio. Now, the unit prime cost has two relevant components: the unit labour cost and the unit imported-input cost (unit home-produced input cost rises in the same ratio as the final goods price and therefore need not be considered separately here). Therefore, for the unit prime cost to rise by 7 per cent, since the unit imported-input cost rises by 10 per cent, the unit labour input cost must rise by less than 7 per cent, say by 5 per cent. With given labour coefficients in production this can happen only if money wages rise by 5 per cent, when prices rise by 7 per cent; that is, when real wages fall.

Of course, there can be real effective exchange rate depreciation, with domestic prices rising by less than the 10 per cent rise in the price of foreign exchange, even with real wages remaining unchanged, if the profit margins of the capitalists could be lowered. But this is precisely what is not possible in a capitalist economy. This can happen in a socialist economy where the enterprises, mostly State-owned, can be directed to charge lower profit margins, so that a real effective exchange rate depreciation can be brought about with no fall in the real wage rate; but in a capitalist economy, the profit-margin is not amenable to any reduction. A real effective exchange rate depreciation therefore necessarily imposes a squeeze on the real wage.

But even assuming that the workers are not strong enough to resist such a reduction in their real wage rate, there is no reason to expect the trade balance to improve: if the trade balance is to improve then domestic employment and output will increase, but this would mean a reduction in output and employment in some other countries at whose expense this economy would be increasing its market-share. If those countries retaliate by depreciating their exchange rates in the same proportion, then there would be no change in market shares and no change in trade balances either.

When the competing countries depreciate their exchange rates in retaliation, the real wages go down in those countries as well. This mode of reducing trade deficit therefore, when no country is making any independent effort to raise the level of demand through income redistribution in favour of the workers or through larger government expenditure, simply results in each squeezing its workers to no avail.

The attempt to raise domestic employment at the expense of rivals, through an exchange rate depreciation (that is supposed to work through reducing the trade deficit) is called a “beggar-my-neighbour” policy. The pursuit of “beggar-my-neighbour” policies by several capitalist economies raises employment nowhere while reducing the real wage rate everywhere.

But that is not all. The reduction in real wages can, under certain circumstances, even lead to a reduction in employment everywhere because of the associated reduction in aggregate demand. It is a symptom of the irrationality of capitalism that a group of countries vying with one another to improve their positions by pursuing “beggar-my-neighbour” policies, may ultimately end up with each country becoming worse off than before.

It is a sign of the hopelessness induced by the current capitalist crisis, that, notwithstanding the experience of the 1930s, voices are audible in the US today which seek a revival of the US economy through a depreciation of the dollar.

As the Global Hegemon Collapses, Can Private Property Be Far Behind?

[PHOTO: Al Drago/Getty]

By Steven Miller

Tuesday’s Presidential debate showed the world how the politics of collapse are determining the election of the next President of the US. It was reminiscent of the Roman Senate when the Goths sacked Rome in 410 AD. Senators gathered in the Forum, protected by the Praetorian Guards. Suddenly one Senator would leap up and cry, “I propose a law making sacking the city illegal.” Everyone voted and the resolution passed unanimously.

The world was watching Tuesday and was shocked at how low the politics have sunk in the US.

There are actually real issues these days — COVID, systemic economic collapse, institutional racism, rampant police murder. But instead we saw the leadership of the most powerful country in the world, the global hegemon for the last 70 years, collapsing in real time right there on television. The candidates could not have an intelligent discussion of the tremendous issues that face the country. No vision, no ideas, no dialogue, no programmatic solutions. The Democrats, of course, agree with Trump on 80% of the issues and therefore dare not make programmatic attacks. The debate proved nothing more than the old adage that when you lay down in the gutter, you do not wind up smelling like a rose.

Meanwhile the organs of the State are fighting themselves. This is characteristic of an objectively revolutionary situation. The FBI openly counters and reports to the American people to disprove the President. The President constantly usurps authority he does not legally have, including creating his own private police force aided and abetted by the most privatized elements of ICE and Homeland Security. The CDC, the Post Office and the Justice Department, every organ of the State, are politicized and coerced into being part of Trump’s election campaign.

The Senate and the House are in stalemate and cannot figure out how to help the American people now that 50 million are unemployed, have lost their healthcare, and are facing a looming Rent Apocalypse. Paralysis is another characteristic of an objectively revolutionary situation. The Republicans are risking losing the Senate as they try to jam through a new Supreme Court Justice before the election. People are beginning to see that these “honored institutions of democracy” are far from neutral.

Twenty-six million people hit the streets in righteous wrath over the murders of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and so many others. Their demands crystalized around defunding or abolishing the police, which acts like an occupying army in a country that treats non-violent civilians with the tactics of the War of Terror, while white supremist vigilante gangs stalk them in the dark.

The institutions of the US State were forged in slavery and infused with structural racism. One of these, the Electoral College, was established to prevent the popular vote from determining the President. It will begin to tear itself apart after election day on November 3. No one knows whether or how the institutions of government will hold up in the coming months before a President is inaugurated on January 20… or after.

A major indicator of how things are going will be the actions of the corporate media industrial complex, perhaps the most sophisticated thought-control apparatus ever devised. These corporations have given Trump billions of dollars of free advertising, and give credence to his slightest whim. They now work in tandem with social media, which openly operates with malign intent to confuse the situation even more. It was therefore significant that one day before the debate, the New York Times, released information about Trump’s taxes that reveal he doesn’t pay any.

Property Depreciation as a Legal Invention

Now the political exposures are beginning to enter the sacred zone of private property, an issue the capitalist class prefers to keep in the dark. The very State, legal system and tax code that is coming under public scrutiny is designed to give uber privileges to private property. This is what the Trump crime family exploits, as does every corporation in America.

Tax laws allow tangible private property, used for business, to be depreciated. Personal property, like a home, cannot be depreciated, but a landlord can depreciate rental property because the theory is that tangible property is “used-up” over time, so the property owner can “depreciate” it.

But depreciation is simply a legal figment. How do we know? When an owner sells business property, the depreciation starts all over again from the top! And anyone who is forced to rent knows quite well that the value of property appreciates and gets more expensive over time. It doesn’t depreciate at all.

Then the property owner gets to deduct the cost of maintaining the property, so s/he gets a double dip. And since depreciation is a business expense, it is a deduction from business income. The law allows the owner to get cash generated in the current year without paying any tax on an amount of income equal to the amount of depreciation.

The legal scam then is elaborated. Trump (and every corporation) borrows money to purchase property, like a golf course, say for $100 million. They take the depreciation of course. Then they get an appraisal of the property that claims the property is actually worth $300 million. The appraisal, say, is three times what it should be, but the inflated appraisal can be used to provide collateral for additional loans.

In other words, the happy capitalist buys property with other peoples’ money, gets paid in tax breaks, ie public money, to depreciate it, and then falsely appreciates the value, to borrow more money to buy more property, etc etc. What a deal!

Inanimate private property in itself has these rights, not people. They are not the rights of the owner, because if the owner sells the property, they no longer get the privilege of depreciating it. So private property is a legal entity that has far more rights than human beings, just because the law says so. OMG – if ordinary citizens can challenge a system of legal institutions that are infused with systemic racism, how far can they go? That is part of the transformative power and the danger to the capitalists of this moment.

Alone in the world in its COVID response, the US put private property in control of the emergency. America is learning the hard way that there are issues that absolutely need a federal government to take control, propose a single strategy and coordinate resources. This is something that private property can never do.

Extractive Capitalism

Since the capitalist system collapsed in 2008, it has been sustained on life support by public money. US corporations, especially the financial sector, have received $25 trillion to $39 trillion in direct payments (David Sirota, Jacobin, “We've Always Had the Money for Medicare for All - We've Just Given It to Corporations Instead”, 18 June 2020). Capitalists got to onshore $23 trillion of profit two years ago. Add in direct subsidies through the military budget of $1+ trillion a year and massive billion-dollar subsidies to the petroleum and pharmaceutical industries.

Yet the economy collapsed after the advent of the virus in one week, the biggest collapse in history. Add in the actions of a criminal President and suddenly the wheels are coming off the bus. Or are they?

Is it really true that the most powerful capitalist class in history, with an unsurpassed military and three centuries of experience in maintaining its rule both legally and illegally, is so inept that they can do nothing about an unpredictable leader that destabilizes everything?

The government is clearly the last profit center left in capitalism. Just as with depreciation, the actions of government alone can create the legalities that create markets for private property. Hence the battles within the government and the State apparatus. The various capitalist gangs do not have real strategic differences, but they certainly differ tactically on whether to maintain bourgeois democracy to achieve their goals.

Corporations merged with the government long ago; now they are rapidly merging with the State, as the provision of police services are increasingly under the control corporations. Since 2003, the Department of Homeland Security has been spending billions a year to affect this change. Private property is unified in the vision of disaster capitalism: take advantage of the situation to re-organize society to augment private profits. They are not moving slowly. They are re-creating the economy as an extractive industry.

Trump’s Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin, for example, was instrumental in creating the “rentership society”. After 2008, financiers understood that there could never be broad home ownership again in the United States. So they evicted millions from their homes, while graciously letting some stay as long as they paid rent, a sum that was dramatically higher than what they paid before. These policies drove millions out of the communities they had lived in for decades even as large amounts of new housing was built. But that housing was built to be empty, to be speculative property that supported hedge funds and not people. That is an extractive industry that sucks wealth out of communities, just as petroleum corporations extract wealth out of the ground.

US capitalism has big plans to transform other branches of the economy into an extractive machine. Constant privatization of every aspect of life is the method. Serious observers of England’s Brexit insanity recognize that when the dust settles, US-style privatized health care intends to invade and try to take over. Trump’s new Supreme Court nominee will likely vote to end Obamacare, and eliminate health care for another 25 million people or so. What can possibly arise to fill the void? What can allow US corporations to further invade public European health care systems?

Maybe it’s the new Apple watch?

Apple released the latest device during all this turmoil, and proudly stated that it was after long discussions with their “partners” in the insurance industry. Why? Could it be because the insurance industry is the main organizer of health care in the US? What is the connection here?

Haim Israel is a strategic director of Bank of America and head of the report, “The World After Covid Primer.” (www.bofaml.com/.../the_world_after_covid.pdf)

The report notes that 1/3 of the world’s data resides in the healthcare industry. It notes that value of data to the economy will increase from 30l billion euros in 2018 to 829 billion euros in 2025.

“We found that while the data generated is rising exponentially, just 1% of it is analysed or monetised effectively. The post Covid era could benefit technology companies who can analyse and monetise such data, but adoption is likely to vary by region owing to privacy concerns and regulations.”

And..  

“Big Government: a new social contract -- Growing surveillance, inequality and the current inadequacy of some healthcare systems versus others highlighted by the current crisis will act as a catalyst for change in politics, furthering populism trends and increasing the risk of social unrest. Covid-19 has handed governments a new social mandate to protect their citizens. Governments will exert greater influence on businesses with shareholder supremacy potentially eroding in favour of stakeholders. Further, this crisis has made the technology industry useful – if not vital – for implementing government power. We think this is unlikely to reverse…”

How far can this go? Vandanta Shiva reports in her article, “The Pandemic Is a Consequence of the War Against Life” (September 21, 2020):

On March 26, 2020, at a peak of the coro­n­avirus pan­dem­ic and in the midst of the lock­down, Microsoft was grant­ed a patent by the World Intel­lec­tu­al Prop­er­ty Orga­ni­za­tion (WIPO). Patent WO 060606 declares that ​“Human Body Activ­i­ty asso­ci­at­ed with a task pro­vid­ed to a user may be used in a min­ing process of a cryp­tocur­ren­cy system….”

The ​“body activ­i­ty” that Microsoft wants to mine includes radi­a­tion emit­ted from the human body, brain activ­i­ties, body flu­id flow, blood flow, organ activ­i­ty, body move­ment such as eye move­ment, facial move­ment, and mus­cle move­ment, as well as any oth­er activ­i­ties that can be sensed and rep­re­sent­ed by images, waves, sig­nals, texts, num­bers, degrees, or any oth­er infor­ma­tion or data.

Intellectual property rights, which is what a patent is, are just as much a creation of government as depreciation. It is another form of privilege for private property.

This step turns health care based on bio-data, especially privatized health care, into an extractive industry. We see this approach as well as corporations racing to develop vaccines. Corporations have long developed vaccines for pets and farm animals, but have resisted developing human vaccines, since they do not produce much profit as compared to “treatments” that you pay for across your lifetime.

One reason that government becomes the market of last resort is because economic production is increasingly done by computer systems and robots. As machines replace human labor, that labor cannot be exploited, which is the source of capitalist private profit. But maybe monetized data and data devices allow humans to be exploited for their information, not dissimilar to the exploitation of animals.

So — given these very real developments, with future potential for private profit, is it really likely that the financial industry, which is the major shot-caller in capitalist planning, going to put up with an incompetent, narcissistic, erratic fool for a US President? These boys have run the world since the advent of the Marshall Plan that re-built Europe after World War II. Are they going to give up now? Without even hardly trying?

Unlikely.

The battles we are living through today are a prelude to the battles that will ensue, regardless of who wins the election. The capitalist agenda will remain on the table. They fully intend to culminate their strategy of total privatization. But the story is not over, and the man behind the curtain is private property. The US hegemon is truly fumbling. The rising global popular movement to hold government accountable for public safety and the basic necessities of life in a time of collapse may be diverted for a bit, but it cannot be stopped.

All it requires is class consciousness and abandoning the notions that the status quo will maintain, that incrementalism and piecemeal solutions work and that we can reform our way into a world that puts healing at the top of the agenda.